Sandown’s Tingle Creek meeting promises to be a cracking occasion, with two days of competitive, high-quality action. Analysis through the card and today’s best bets!
A juvenile hurdle with some moderately talented flat horses making their debut over hurdles. Despite being uninspiring for Nigel Tinkler, Goblet of Fire has joined Nicky Henderson’s yard and therefore commands respect. It would be no surprise to see him improve for this change of discipline. Gary Moore’s French recruit, Royal Way, is un-exposed and it is hard to gage the level of form he has on his CV. He’ll be fine with the soft ground. Ithaca’s Arrow has been a drifter this morning but brings the best form from horses who have had a flat career. However, the selection is the hot favourite, Castelfort, for Jane Williams. He ran a nice race on debut behind a progressive rival, and a reproduction of that effort would make him hard to beat.
An intriguing handicap chase, with plenty of chances. Gary Moore holds a particularly strong hand, as he runs Kotmask and Hudson De Grugy. The former won well at Plumpton last time out, despite a few jumping errors. He had enough in the tank to suggest that an 8lb rise may not stop him. The latter holds four wins over the distance but must bounce back from being pulled up last time. He’s been largely consistent in recent seasons and wind surgery may get him back on track. Fast Buck is well-handicapped on old form but has been poor in recent times and needs a revival. Mount Tempest should appreciate the reduction in trip, but faded badly when last seen and comes with risks. Will Sting ran well for a long way last time but is inconsistent and quirky. Dreams Of Home has been fairly consistent and should give his running off top weight.
The first graded race of the weekend. There was lots to like when SouthoftheBorder made his hurdle debut 26 days ago. He jumped well and never seemed to get out of third gear. He now goes up in trip, which should not be an issue, as he holds a point win over 3 miles. If he continues his upward curve, he’ll be hard to beat. Ben Pauling’s, Personal Ambition, may give him the most to think about after he made a very pleasing debut for the yard. He beat a next-time-out winner and won it cozily. Champion trainer Paul Nicholls sends Insurrection, who won stylishly at Exeter last time out. As with most of the field, it’s hard to tell where his limitations lie.
Albert Bartlett winner Stay Away Fay is well fancied to land the Betfair Esher Novice Chase for Paul Nicholls. He made a winning chase debut last time, despite looking in trouble during the closing stages. He’ll appreciate a strong stamina test and appears to have the measure of The Changing Man, who he beat last time out. Nevertheless, it was a strong effort, and a similar performance would see him on the premises. The main threat to the favourite is likely to be Lucinda Russell’s, Giovinco. He has been hugely progressive over fences and has become a winning machine, winning four out of five starts under rules. While this is a steep increase in competition, he may be capable of rising to the occasion.
Overnight favourite, Not Sure, won well on soft ground last time out and is steadily going in the right direction. However, he has alarmingly drifted in the market. Another who is slowly moving up the handicap is Emma Lavelle’s, My Silver Lining. While he has won his last two, he may prefer a sounder surface. Suzy Smith’s, Animal, will not mind the soft ground and has recorded three wins on it. He is a strong stayer and may come on a touch for his seasonal reappearance. Top weight is Jonjo O’Neill’s, Collectors Item, who hasn’t been at his best so far this season. I have a small feeling he’d be suited to a marathon stamina test. Midnight Mary is consistent and may not be far away, but this does appear to be a stronger race than the one she came third in last time. Robyndzone scored well at Ludlow but moved up in grade and requires further improvement. Huelgoat won well last time out but tackles this trip for the first time and has obvious question marks.
Immortal plodded on when finishing third last time at Ascot. He may be seen to better effect back over 2 miles. Solid form claims. West End Boy has gone up nearly a stone in weight but is clearly thriving and knows how to win. The hike in weight may limit him. Jim Boyle’s, Classic Anthem may receive a useful form boost if Southoftheborder wins earlier in the day. He ran well and has had wind surgery since. The same can be said for Magical King, who was behind Josh the Boss last time and holds a particularly good chance if the latter boosts the form. Impact Du Bonheur was behind Classic Anthem last time but should be better than he showed on that occasion.
Castelfort, Southoftheborder, Stay Away Fay – Trixie
Animal
