So, it all comes down to these final two races. After 108 laps around Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi, the 2021 Formula One world champion will be crowned, but will it be Max Verstappen or Lewis Hamilton?
The Red Bull Racing driver currently holds an eight point lead over the seven-time world champion Hamilton, but the Mercedes man crucially has a newer engine in his car having made a switch at the Brazilian Grand Prix. Therefore, the advantage is certainly with the German racing stable.
Momentum is also with Hamilton, having scored victories in the previous two races, and at a circuit that would typically suit Mercedes, a win is expected.
With a predicted average speed of 252km/h, the Jeddah circuit is set to be full throttle, and qualifying will certainly be a spectacle. It will be the fastest street track in F1 history, and will rank second behind only Monza, which is suitably known as ‘The Temple of Speed’, on the 2021 calendar.
The narrow nature of the track will also play a huge role in proceedings; with the barriers so close to the racing line, it will take the utmost skill to perfect every lap, and a crash seems inevitable. In fact, with it being a completely new track, the three practice sessions will be crucial for every driver, but there’s a chance they will all be disrupted.
With the barriers so close, and the limits so fine, a red flag is likely to appear, which will scupper vital data gathering, and that could make things all the more interesting. With less data available, the teams are less prepared, and in a sport so driven by the analysis of statistics, limited running affects things massively.
Unpredictability is a precious commodity in Formula 1, so new tracks are an ideal way to add something fresh and different, which can catch teams unaware; the question is, who will be best prepared?
How can Verstappen win the title?
Despite the momentum clearly lying with Mercedes and Hamilton, the Red Bull superstar is the only driver who can actually win the world title this weekend.
Although it seems a long-shot given his slender advantage in the championship standings, there are several circumstances that would see the Dutchman handed his first ever single seater crown.
A DNF has been the unspoken worry around the paddock, especially those of Mercedes or Red Bull persuasion, and one thing is for sure, at this stage a DNF would be the decisive factor in this intense battle for the title.
The essential statistic is that if Verstappen scores 18 points more than Hamilton this weekend he will win the Drivers’ Championship. So, if the Dutchman wins the race and receives the fastest lap point, and Hamilton finishes sixth or lower, that will be enough for Verstappen to secure the title.
Of course, that does seem unlikely given Hamilton’s recent form, but it’s certainly a possibility, and with the complexity of the circuit, a red flag stoppage could well be on the cards, and from then on it could become a lottery as to who comes out on top by the chequered flag.
Must-win for Hamilton
While Verstappen has the chance to win the world title this weekend, the inaugural Saudi Arabian Grand Prix is a must-win for Hamilton. That eight point deficit to the Red Bull man will become almost insurmountable if he doesn’t win here, especially if Verstappen crosses the finish line first.
Well-versed in pressure situations by now, Hamilton will no doubt be playing down the importance of winning in Jeddah, but he will know it’s required if he wants a realistic shot at the title.
Mercedes also need a victory for their Constructors’ Championship ambitions, so have an added incentive into securing an eighth win of the season for Hamilton.
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