Gloucester Rugby’s play-off hopes have become unlikely as they lost 38-19 to Harlequins over the weekend. The Cherry and Whites sit in sixth position with 46 points and will need two more wins from their last two fixtures to have a shot of sneaking in the play-offs. Lets unravel how Gloucester can mathematically get into the top four.
Bath have already qualified with 66 points at the top of the table. Leicester Tigers sit on 56 points and should comfortably make the play-offs. Tigers face Newcastle Falcons in the last game-week, this is a game they should win, meaning two of the spots are already taken by the top two sides.
Scores on the doors after Round 16 👀
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The play-off race is hotting up! 🔥#GallagherPrem pic.twitter.com/fvXbVrrVU5
The race for third and fourth is a lot more interesting, there are six points between third and sixth, the teams being Bristol Bears, Sale Sharks, Saracens and Gloucester. A key fixture this weekend is Sale vs Bristol. If Bristol win, they will be favourites to finish third in the league. However, if Sale win, it opens up both spots for Gloucester and Saracens to sneak into.
Gloucester will need ten points from their fixtures against Newcastle Falcons and Northampton Saints and firstly will have to hope Saracens lose against Bath on the final weekend. This would leave Gloucester on 56 points and Saracens on 54. Whoever comes out losing the game between Bristol Bears and Sale Sharks would also have to lose their game in the final game-week for Gloucester to get into the play-offs.
For example, If Bristol Bears beat Sale Sharks this Friday night, Gloucester would have to hope that Sale also lose their last match against Exeter. This certain outcome would mean that Bristol finish on a minimum of 57 points, Sale would stay on 49 and Gloucester would have 56. Providing Saracens lose one of their last two games, Gloucester would make it.
To summarize, Gloucester need to be flawless and secure ten points. They need Saracens to lose in the final game-week against Bath. Lastly, they need the loser of Sale vs Bristol to also lose their last match. Slim chances for Gloucester, but with the quality of their side and especially their back line, anything can happen.
